{"models":{"watch":{"name":"ForeScore Watch","description":"Continuation model — probability that an existing outage will persist or that current conditions will sustain disruption","coverageStates":["MI","CA","NY","KY","GA","TX"],"trainedThrough":"2022","scoreBasis":"forescore_watch","threshold":0.621,"metrics":{"precisionAtThreshold":0.8,"recallAtThreshold":0.68,"dataset":"2022 holdout, 6-state"}},"spark":{"name":"ForeScore Spark","description":"Onset model — probability of a NEW outage starting (scored only for counties with no current outage)","coverageStates":["MI","CA","NY","KY","GA","TX"],"trainedThrough":"2022","scoreBasis":"forescore_spark","status":"beta","threshold":0.519,"metrics":{"aucRoc":0.7922,"precisionAtThreshold":0.087,"recallAtThreshold":0.128,"maxAchievablePrecision":0.359,"dataset":"2022 holdout, MI (weather-adjusted)","note":"Onset detection is inherently harder than continuation — no lag1 feature available at prediction time"}}},"coverageStates":["MI","CA","NY","KY","GA","TX"],"dataRefreshMinutes":60,"interpretationGuide":{"riskLevel=HIGH, sparkRiskLevel=HIGH":"Outage ongoing AND new onset risk — cascading event likely","riskLevel=HIGH, sparkRiskLevel=LOW":"Outage ongoing, conditions may be stabilizing","riskLevel=LOW, sparkRiskLevel=HIGH":"No current outage — conditions favor a new outage starting","riskLevel=LOW, sparkRiskLevel=LOW":"Clear — no outage risk detected"}}